NFL Week 1 Expert Picks: Panthers and Jets are live dogs (2024)

The NFL betting season is back and that means Odd Shark’s team of NFL betting experts is here to guide you through the season with their top picks. If you enjoy betting on NFL football games, you’ll want to bookmark this page as it features the best picks from Tony Farmer, Nick Holz, and Mitch Bannon and will be updated each week between now and the Super Bowl.

During the preseason, the trio of experts secured readers 5.86 units after combining to go 20-14-1 (see below). Tony, Nick, and Mitch will look to keep the momentum going into the regular season. This page will be updated as their picks roll in, so bookmark it and check back often.

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In this space above we keep our experts honest and track their win-loss record and units won/lost throughout the season. Feel free to follow along at home and see how you stack up against our experts. To see our prop bets for this NFL season, click here.

Below you can find our expert's picks and some analysis that helped them reach their conclusions.

Panthers +4 (-110) vs. Saints
Pick: Tony Farmer

I bet this today (8/27) and my main motivation was fading the New Orleans Saints dreadful offensive line.

With RT Ryan Ramczyk out, New Orleans will have Trevor Penning in his place and Penning was benched last season for poor performance. At LT, rookie Taliese Fuaga will start but he played RT in college and is nursing a back injury. Inside, Eric McCoy is an above-average center, but the guard positions are highly questionable with Cesar Ruiz (51.2 PFF grade in 2023) and Lucas Patrick (50.5 PFF grade). These days, 33-year-old Derek Carr is only slightly more mobile than a piñataand he may resemble one after Sunday.

I'm not one to overreact to the preseason, but I am starting to come around to the idea that Bryce Young could be much improved this season. Young has a much better offensive line thanks to the additions of Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. Young's weapons are also much improved after adding Diontae Johnson and 1st-round pick Xavier Legette.

Last year the Saints beat the Panthers by 3 points in Week 2 and I see this being another low-scoring 3-point game that Carolina has a shot at winning.

Jets +4 (-110) vs. San Francisco
Pick: Tony Farmer

I'm betting this now in an attempt to get good closing line value ahead of potential bad news for the 49ers. Teams are trimming their roster today (8/27) and based on what I'm reading from beat reporters, San Francisco safety Talanoa Hufunga is expected to begin the season on the physically unable-to-perform list.

I'm also hearing increasingly bad news about holdouts Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk. The value of Williams can't be overstated enough as the 49ers' offensive line depth is as deep as a kittie pool. If the 49ers are without Aiyuk, Williams, and Hufunga by kickoff I expect this number to be closer to -3.

Evenwiththat trio though, I like the Jets in this spot as Kyle Shanahan isn't a good Week 1 coach (3-4 SU). The 49ers weakness is on the offensive line and the Jets front 7 has the ingredients to give San Francisco fits.

Chiefs vs. Ravens:Under 46.5 (-110)
Pick: Mitch Bannon

I think everybody is forgetting how good these defenses were last year. TheRavensandChiefsranked out as the two best defenses in the NFL in 2023 by points against, averaging 16.2 and 17.0 against, respectively. So, it wasn’t a shocker when the playoff meeting between these two teams totaled just 27 points in January.According to PFF projections, the Chiefs and Ravens both project to have top-10 defenses once again.

Both of these teams were also UNDER machines to start the season last year, too. The Chiefs went UNDER 46.5 points in three of their first four games in 2023 and the Ravens went UNDER the mark in six of their first seven. I expect a similar trend to hold at the start of this campaign.

Bears -4.5 (-110)
Pick: Mitch Bannon

I think Caleb Williams is going to have his way with Tennessee's defense. The Titans allowed the fifth-highest Quarterback Rating against last year, letting up around 230 passing yards per contest.This led to some blowout losses, as the Titans finished 7-9-1 against the spread in 2023-24.

With a whole new passing attack, the Bears are ready to take advantage. Williams can find open receivers all over the field with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen all ready to catch the ball.

I'm not that daunted by this 4.5-point line, either.For being one of the worst teams in football last year, the Bears were actually pretty good at locking up wins. Of Chicago’s seven wins last season, five came by more than 4.5 points (all five of those came by more than 10 points, too).

I also think playing at home will help the Bears in this one, as they went 4-2-2 against the spread in eight home contests last year.

UNDER 41.5 Points (-110) Giant vs Vikings
Pick: Mitch Bannon

The Giants and Vikings are not going to be enjoyable football teams to watch this year, with two of the least compelling offenses in the league. That's not entirely new for these teams, as they were both some of the best UNDER squads in the NFL last year. The Giants hit the UNDER in 11 of 17 contests last year while the Vikings did in 10 of 17.

I also think the quarterbacks in this game are going to help us get to the UNDER. Neither Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold are very good at football (I'll be honest) and that manifests in low-scoring games. The UNDER 41.5 points (quite a low total) still hit in three of Daniel Jones' six games last season, while it's hit in four of the seven games Sam Darnold has started over the last two years.

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